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Trends, tensions and opportunities shaping 2026

Based on insights from Earnix’s 2025 thought leadership, this article explores how intelligent decisioning, agentic AI and governance are reshaping insurance. It highlights the growing tension between autonomy and accountability, and what responsible AI adoption will demand from insurers in 2026.
Written by
COVER
Published on
January 26, 2026
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If 2025 was the year the insurance industry stopped asking whether artificial intelligence belonged at the core of operations, then 2026 will be the year it is judged on how responsibly it is used.

That was the clearest signal emerging from the combined insights shared by Earnix and its leadership during the past year. Across discussions on intelligent decisioning, agentic AI, governance, pricing, underwriting and customer engagement, a more mature narrative has taken shape, one that moves beyond experimentation toward accountability, trust and execution at scale.

Intelligent decisioning becomes the new baseline - At the heart of Earnix’s 2025 commentary is a decisive shift away from isolated predictive models toward intelligent decisioning, the orchestration of predictive, generative and agentic AI across end-to-end insurance workflows.

As Adrian Mincher, Director at Earnix, explained at Excelerate 2025, predictive AI helped insurers understand what might happen, while generative AI now supports what should happen next. The next leap, intelligent decisioning, embeds those insights into governed workflows that link pricing, underwriting, distribution and customer engagement in real time.

This is no longer a future vision. By 2031, AI is forecast to dominate the operational backbone of South African insurers, a trajectory that makes the transition from experimentation to execution unavoidable.

Autonomy meets accountability - One of the most important themes to emerge in 2025 is the industry’s growing discomfort with “black box” AI. As autonomous systems move from analysis into action, initiating processes and adapting dynamically, the risk profile changes fundamentally.  

“Autonomy without accountability is a risk no regulated industry can afford to ignore,” Adrian Mincher.

The answer, consistently reinforced by Earnix, is the human-in-the-loop model. Agentic AI must augment, not replace, human judgement. This is especially critical in pricing and underwriting, where fairness, explainability and regulatory scrutiny are non-negotiable.

By 2026, insurers will be expected not only to demonstrate AI capability, but to prove governance, auditability, escalation paths, bias testing and clear accountability for outcomes.

Agentic AI moves from theory to practice - While still early, 2025 revealed that agentic AI is already delivering value in practical, contained use cases.

According to Marcus Looft, Strategy Director at Earnix, AI agents are beginning to support scenario testing in pricing, real-time portfolio monitoring, and contextual customer engagement. These systems do not replace actuaries or underwriters; they handle structured, repetitive tasks so human experts can interpret, challenge and decide.

“Artificial intelligence is steadily reshaping insurance, but the key to success is ensuring that progress is sustainable, trusted and creates tangible improvements,” Marcus Looft.

The opportunity for 2026 lies in scaling these use cases responsibly, guided by regulation, customer trust and operational readiness.

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“Autonomy without accountability is a risk no regulated industry can afford to ignore.”

COVER

Explainability becomes a competitive advantage - A defining constraint, and opportunity, for insurers is explainability.

Unlike consumer platforms, insurers must justify decisions to regulators, brokers and customers. Earnix’s consistent emphasis on transparent, governed AI reflects a broader truth: trust will be the currency of AI adoption.

In markets like South Africa, where conduct regulation and fairness principles are sharpening, explainable AI will separate leaders from laggards. Insurers that can clearly articulate why a price changed, why cover was declined, or why a recommendation was made will strengthen credibility across the value chain.

Data remains the hard work beneath the hype - Despite the focus on AI, Earnix’s 2025 discussions were refreshingly candid about the real bottleneck: data.

Fragmented systems, inconsistent definitions and poor data governance continue to limit the value of even the most advanced analytics. Unified, governed data layers, combining internal systems with third-party sources such as IoT, telematics and climate data, are emerging as the foundation for intelligent decisioning.

The lesson for 2026 is unglamorous but unavoidable. Without disciplined data management, AI amplifies noise rather than insight.

Customer engagement shifts from generic to contextual - Another strong signal from 2025 is the redefinition of customer engagement.

As Christophe Bourguignat, Founder, Zelros by Earnix, highlighted, customers increasingly expect insurance experiences that are simple, personalised and responsive, even as risks become more complex. Intelligent decisioning allows insurers to move away from generic offerings toward contextual interactions, whether through dynamic pricing, tailored renewals or real-time guidance for brokers and agents.

“With better use of data and intelligent decisioning, insurers can move away from generic offerings and towards tailored experiences,” Bourguignat observed.

For 2026, this has profound implications. Insurers that fail to modernise engagement risk becoming invisible, not because they lack products, but because they cannot respond at the speed customers now expect.

Leadership, culture and authenticity matter more than ever - Interestingly, Earnix’s 2025 narrative was not only technical. Through reflections shared by Ronit Maor, CFO at Earnix, a softer but equally important theme emerged: leadership authenticity.

As technology accelerates, organisations need leaders who can navigate uncertainty, mentor talent and maintain cultural integrity. “Authenticity is not a weakness, it is a leadership superpower,” Maor noted, a reminder that sustainable transformation depends as much on people as platforms.

What 2026 will demand - Taken together, Earnix’s 2025 insights point to a clear conclusion: the next phase of insurance innovation is not about more AI, but better AI.

In 2026, insurers will be judged on their ability to balance autonomy with accountability, speed with governance, and innovation with trust. Those who succeed will embed intelligent decisioning into everyday operations while keeping human judgement firmly at the centre.

The real transformation ahead is not technological. It is organisational, and it has already begun.

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