Volker von Widdern, Head of Strategic Risk at Riskonet Africa

South Africa faces a tough year ahead in 2026, with several converging risks threatening the stability of its infrastructure, economy, and social fabric. The “polycrisis” environment will continue, which requires heightened risk awareness and alertness. Energy constraints, freight, and water insecurity, rising cyber threats, election-year volatility and the escalating costs of climate change are all creating a more complex and less predictable environment for business, communities, and policymakers. Volker von Widdern, Head of Strategic Risk at Riskonet Africa, says these risks are not isolated and must be managed in a far more integrated way. “We are entering a period where structural weaknesses are colliding with economic and social pressures. Energy, water, logistics and governance issues cannot be treated separately. They interact with each other and amplify the impact when one system fails.”

One of the most immediate pressure points is grid access. Even as load-shedding eases at times, South Africa faces severe transmission capacity constraints, particularly in the Cape corridors. Eskom’s own projections show that the current pace of infrastructure build-out is far too slow to meet the growing demand from new generation projects. Independent Power Producer timelines and pricing are at risk if connection queues continue to lengthen.

A second energy-related challenge is the rising non-payment of electricity bills by local authorities, combined with illegal connections that also damage the network. Government’s planned installation of six million smart meters is an essential technical solution, but also a potential flashpoint for community unrest if not managed sensitively.

Transport and logistics represent another critical vulnerability. Freight corridor fragility remains a key growth limiter. Although some improvements have been noted, port and rail reliability is still patchy, with Durban and other gateways facing multi-day waiting times during busy periods. Transnet’s recovery hinges on private capital and strict operational targets. Any slippage will directly affect mining, manufacturing, and agricultural exports.

Water is also emerging as a systemic threat. National data shows that nearly half of South Africa’s water is classified as non-revenue through leaks, theft, and metering losses. This instability is pushing water scarcity from a municipal issue to a board-level risk. “Water sharing” programs by Local Authorities are not structured or transparent.  For industries dependent on consistent water pressure, sudden restrictions or rationing can shut down operations altogether, with knock-on effects across supply chains and communities.

Cyber extortion continues to surge. South Africa is one of the biggest ransomware hotspots in Africa, while enforcement of the Protection of Personal Information Act is tightening. Companies face not only operational risks but also legal and financial exposure, with regulators starting to issue fines and enforcement notices.

Local government volatility during the 2026 municipal elections will add another layer of uncertainty. Fragile coalitions, leadership churn, and policy disruptions are likely to affect permits, tariffs, and service delivery. At a national level, political tensions could spill over into security risks, with potential economic consequences.

Climate change is an ever-present accelerant. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and destructive, with flood damage increasing across rural and urban communities. Municipalities remain underprepared for these shocks. Von Widdern warns that climate threats will intersect with infrastructure weaknesses in dangerous ways. “Flooding, power constraints, and water system failures compound each other. The question is not if these risks will collide, but when,” he says.

Beyond these immediate risks lie deeper structural pressures. Non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular illness, diabetes and obesity are placing severe strain on the health system. At the same time, rising online gambling and microlending are driving economic distress in vulnerable communities.

South Africa’s exposure also mirrors broader global risk patterns. Internationally, geopolitical instability, weak cyber security and widening gaps between technology leaders and lagging SMEs are reshaping risk landscapes. Domestically, macroeconomic pressures remain severe, with debt-to-GDP and debt service costs crowding out essential infrastructure spending.

What makes 2026 particularly challenging is the interconnectedness of these risks. Energy constraints can fuel unrest. Freight bottlenecks can undermine export revenue. Water insecurity can trigger shutdowns in key industries. Political volatility can erode business confidence. Climate shocks can push all of these to breaking point.

Increasing levels of disaffection in communities that experience water and electricity restrictions (whether caused by system faults or increased discipline on billings) could result in widespread civil unrest. The KZN riots illustrate the economic impact of widespread civil unrest, which can arise from closure of directly affected businesses to disruptions in supply chains.

Von Widdern believes the response must be equally interconnected. “The priority must be to break down siloed risk planning. Infrastructure, governance, finance, and social resilience strategies need to be coordinated. If we get ahead of these risks, we can turn pressure into progress. But delay will come at a prohibitive cost.”

In the months ahead, the key indicators to watch will be the rollout of smart meters, grid connection approvals, port turnaround times, non-revenue water levels, ransomware incident reporting, and early warning alerts on climate threats. Addressing these risks early, decisively, and collaboratively will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of crisis management or a turning point toward greater resilience.

South Africa has weathered many storms, but the risks on the horizon demand sharper foresight, stronger institutions, and far more unified action. The clock, as Von Widdern notes, is already ticking. “These are not distant threats. They are here, they are converging, and they require us to act now.”