The Business Pulse: First Quarter 2026 report by Momentum Investments Economists, Sanisha Packirisamy and Tshiamo Masike highlights a modest improvement in South Africa’s business confidence, with the Business Confidence Index rising to its highest level since 2021. The recovery is supported by moderating inflation, a stronger rand during the survey period and expectations of interest-rate cuts.

However, the outlook remains fragile. Weak mining and manufacturing production continue to weigh on economic momentum, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive higher oil prices, fuel inflation and delay monetary easing. Despite these risks, resilient consumer spending and improved trade activity suggest the economy may still achieve moderate growth in 2026.

Download Momentum Investments’ Business Pulse first Quarter report here