By Roné Swanepoel Head of Sales at Morningstar South Africa

Global markets are once again flirting with all-time highs. For many investors, it’s a moment that prompts hesitation: Is this the right time to invest? Have I missed the opportunity?

These are understandable questions. Just a few months ago—in April—markets were firmly in the red. Investor sentiment was gloomy, with recession fears dominating the headlines. Fast forward to today, and equity markets have surged more than 26% from those lows. What changed?

In part, the rally has been driven not by blind optimism, but by cautious disbelief. Underlying fundamentals are more resilient than expected. Delta Airlines reported record revenue. JPMorgan noted they “struggle to see signs of weakness.” Back home, South African markets have held up well too, supported by strength in select sectors and improving sentiment toward emerging markets.

Naturally, big rebounds like this feel like they must be followed by a pullback. But history suggests otherwise. Gains of over 25% in three months have only occurred five other times in recent history—1975, 1982, 1999, 2009, and 2020. In every case, the market was higher three, six, and twelve months later. The average return a year later? 21%.

It’s one of the many data points reinforcing a key principle: investing at market highs isn’t inherently risky. In fact, investing at new highs has historically outperformed investing on an average day.

For those waiting for a better entry point, consider this quote from author Morgan Housel: “All past declines look like an opportunity; all future declines look like a risk.” Timing the market may feel tempting—but it’s often costly. Far better is a disciplined, diversified investment approach that stays the course.

So, whether you’re already invested or thinking about putting cash to work, it’s worth asking: Am I letting headlines dictate my financial decisions? Or am I focused on a strategy built for the long term?

With so much noise, it’s easy to be reactive. But long-term investing isn’t about calling the top—it’s about staying invested through the ups and downs. As always, we're here to help you think clearly through market cycles, anchor your decisions in data, and stay focused on your goals.